Activity: Predicting weather: How Accurate Can We Be?, by Jason Albert and Miguel Villalon

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Overview and learning goals

Students will determine the relative accuracy of their data to predict local weather. They will compare actual weather events with the weather their data predicted. In writing, they will discuss why weather forecasts are often incorrect or slightly less than accurate, whereas weather predictions tend to be more accurate.

Prerequisite knowledge

How air pressure data and other sets of data help us predict weather. This aspect of the unit should be reserved for the last week of the unit.

Intended grade level

8 - 12

Time involved

Preparation: @ 60 minutes - to produce journal pages that help students analyze, compare and contrast, and write about lab versus field science. [We should provide a sample!]

Activity: 15 minutes to observe the weather forecast and 20 minutes to write about it in their journals. Have additional time for class discussion and unit closure.

Alignment to standards (for entire unit)

This unit addresses several components of standard four of the Colorado Department of Education's Earth science standards as well as Boulder Valley School District's science standards. Specifically, the unit meets most if not all of Boulder Valley School District's standard 4.2 and its correlating benchmarks.

Background information for the unit

USA Today Weather Book (great resource!)

Materials

Preparation

Videotape a local weather forecast. It should predict the weather for the last week of the weather unit and be local. Tape it on a Sunday evening or Monday morning so it includes a complete “predicted” forecast. (Remember, the videotaped forecast is retroactive in that the forecasted week has just passed.)

Prepare the journal pages - these should be designed to facilitate the comparing and contrasting of field and lab science. You can modify them to cover your specific interests and concerns or those of your students.

Procedure

  1. Students watch the weather forecast. Students will spend the beginning of class observing a videotaped newscast of a weather report.
  2. As the students observe the forecast, they should assess its accuracy using their data and observations (compare their observations and real-time data).
  3. After observing the tape, students should document the accuracy of the weather report in their weather journal. They should address the reasons for any discrepancies between the predicted forecast and actual weather events and measurements. Remember that this unit is designed to address the differences between lab and field science. (Field science must control for a seemingly infinite number of variables whereas lab science is more controllable. )
  4. Have the class discuss their journal entries.

Reflecting on the activity/ideas for assessment

  1. Assess the journal entries and class discussion.
  2. Have the students try to predict the upcoming week's weather. (They could be given current data as well as a weather map indicating cold and warm fronts.)

Key questions that may be asked with ‘Look fors'

Does it matter that lab and field science may differ in their ability to control for a multitude of variables?

Extensions and applications

The class could discuss the advent of complex mathematical modeling to predict weather. This would be an opportunity to discuss how math is applied in the “real world”.

Adaptations for special needs

Students of limited English proficiency may be asked to compare their drawings or diagrams of observed weather. Diagrams are a great way to convey weather concepts and would be an inclusive way for ensuring that all students are involved. In addition, journal entries could include diagrams in addition to or as a replacement for writing.

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